О главных трендах мировой экономики

Новости

Нынешние ключевые тренды — начинающаяся торговая война между США и Китаем и сворачивание глобализации. Но за ними проглядываются куда более интересные процессы, которые могут затронуть не только мировую экономику.

Сейчас наращивание объемов экспорта происходит в обмен на рост золотовалютных резервов. Суть процесса сводится к тому, что, например, Китай, экспортируя произведенные iPhone и т.п. в США, в обмен на вывезенные товары (экспорт) получает новую запись на счет Народного банка Китая в Федеральном резервном банке Нью-Йорка (т.е. увеличивает золотовалютные резервы КНР). Далее Народный банк Китая переводит остаток денег с банковского депозитного счета в ФРС на депозитарный счет в ФРС, т.е. покупает гособлигации США.

Но, к сожалению, современная экономическая теория способна думать о торговых балансах преимущественно в разрезе финансовых потоков и дефицитов операций по текущему счету. Однако, не менее важным реальным макроэкономическим эффектом экспорта товаров является импорт рабочих мест. Проводимая Китаем макроэкономическая политика дала сотням миллионов китайцев рабочие места, импортировав эти места из развитых стран (в т.ч., из США). Соответственно, США, импортируя товары из Китая, экспортируют рабочие места. Именно с этим процессом Д.Трамп и начал бороться посредством введения импортных пошлин, препятствующих импорту товаров, развязывающих торговую войну и умножающих на нуль идеи свободы внешней торговли и глобализации. И удорожающих товары и в США.

Если экономическим смыслом экспорта товаров является в т.ч. импорт рабочих мест, следовательно, Китай продолжает экспорт товаров не потому, что ему нужны золотовалютные резервы (они у КНР колоссального размера), а потому, что ему нужны рабочие места. Если Китай прекратит наращивать экспорт, то его ждет социальный коллапс существующей политической и экономической системы. Естественно, власти КНР этого допустить не желают.

Импорт товаров в той или иной мере, как правило, лишает страну рабочих мест. Сейчас, когда противостояние США и Китая накаляется практически каждодневно, призывы вернуть рабочие места назад звучат все более громко. Но за криками «вернуть рабочие места назад» забывается важный нюанс. Возвращение рабочих мест из того же Китая — это возврат в прошлое. Западному миру, в т.ч. США, в среднесрочной перспективе не нужны китайские рабочие места. Этот этап своего развития они уже прошли. Западному миру нужны новые рабочие места, в т.ч. в таких отраслях, на которые Китай не сможет посягнуть в принципе: медицина, наука и образование, забота о престарелых и детях, и т.п.

США и любая иная развитая страна мира вполне может обеспечить себя той же одеждой или электроникой. Вопрос не в возможностях, а в цене (сейчас в т.ч. в цене человеческого труда). Прибыль Apple на каждом iPhone во много раз превышает добавленную стоимость, остающуюся в Китае, и поэтому вопрос цены еще остается открытым. Себестоимость сильно отличается от конечной цены в магазине. Большинство товаров, выходящих с заводов в Китае и других странах, имеет цену в 3-4 раза ниже, чем в магазинах в США и ЕС. Это позволяет американским и европейским продавцам делать скидки в 50-70% и все равно получать прибыль.

Но кто (какая страна) делает электронику или одежду постепенно становится не так важно. Мы же помним о том, как General Motors, не самая высокотехнологическая компания по меркам США, демонстрировала свою производственную линию, где участие труда человека равно абсолютному нулю. Включение в розетку (полу-)автоматических линий по производству iPhone или пошиву одежды — пожалуй, таково будущее производителей. Вот что важнее, чем нынешние торговые войны и сворачивание глобализации.

Научный, технический и технологический прогресс идет верной дорогой к этому будущему. Независимо от того, нравится это нам или нет. Кстати, здесь кроется и вариант ответа на вопрос — так ли уж важен возврат рабочих мест на Запад? Есть, правда, еще один прелюбопытный вопрос — если Китаю придется автоматизировать и роботизировать рабочие места (а без этого не достичь успеха в международной конкуренции), высвобождая сотни миллионов трудоустроенных граждан без последующего предоставления работы, не произойдет ли в Китае коллапс политикой и экономической системы? И что за этим может последовать?..

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